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New Poll: Trump and Cruz Lead in Texas, but Demographic Gaps Emerge

Ballots going into boxes

Texas voters share their thoughts

By joshua glanzer | 10/8/2024

A new poll from the ֱ Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab ( ) and Mainstreet Research USA reveals tight races for both the presidency and U.S. Senate in Texas, with notable divisions along gender and educational lines.

Presidential Race: Trump Holds Lead Over Harris

  • Former U.S. President Donald Trump leads U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris 50% to 45% among all voters
  • Gender gap: Trump leads among men (53% vs. 42%); while Harris and Trump appear to be in a statistical deadlock with women
  • Education divide: Trump dominates among white non-college educated voters (63% vs. 31%); but the race is closer with college-educated white voters with Trump leading Harris (56% to 42%).

Senate Contest: Cruz Maintains Slim Advantage

  • Incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz leads Democratic challenger U.S. Rep. Colin Allred 46% to 43% among all voters
  • Significant undecided bloc: 11% of voters remain undecided, potentially swinging the race

Key Demographic Trends

  • Age split: Voters under 50 are evenly divided in the presidential race, while those 50+ favor Trump by nearly nine points
  • Racial divide: Black voters overwhelmingly support Harris (77%) and Allred (69.2%); while Hispanic voters lean Democratic but are more competitive

“These results highlight the continuing competitiveness of Texas in national elections,” said Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., professor of political science at ֱand co-director of the ֱPolCom Lab. “The gender and education gaps we're seeing could be crucial factors in determining the outcome in November.”

Methodology
The poll surveyed 811 registered Texas voters from Oct. 2-6, using Interactive Voice Response, text messaging, and online panel methods. The sample was collected from registered U.S. voters and was conducted in both English and Spanish. The survey applied weights for gender, race, education and past vote. Party identification was self-reported. A likely voter screen was applied based on respondents’ stated voting intentions. While a precise margin of error cannot be calculated due to the mixed methodology, a comparable probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. It's important to note that polls represent a snapshot in time and may not predict future outcomes. For full methodologies, visit . For the poll’s full report, visit

-FAU-

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